The Playoff Picture

With two games left, we are not mathematically eliminated from a top-4 league finish and a playoff spot, however if that is to happen we will need some help in addition to two victories this weekend. The league table currently looks like this:

RPI (5-0-0, 15 Points)
HOBART (4-0-1, 13 Pts.)
ST. LAWRENCE (3-2-0, 9 Pts.)
UNION (2-2-1, 7 Pts.)
HAMILTON (2-3-0, 6 Pts.)
SKIDMORE (2-3-0, 6 Pts.)
VASSAR (1-4-0, 3 Pts.)
CLARKSON (0-5-0, 0 Pts.)

We know a few things:
- To have a chance to make the playoffs, we must win both games, which would put us at (3-4-0, 9 Pts.) We could conceivably tie Hobart and beat Hamilton and find ourselves in a tie for fourth-place with Union or Union/Hamilton at 2-4-1, but due to Union’s victories over both us and Hamilton, we would not win the head-to-head tie-breaker.
- Clarkson is eliminated from the playoff race (so any victories by them this weekend will help us).
- We cannot catch RPI or Hobart, so again, victories by them should help us.
- We also cannot catch St. Lawrence. While we could tie them, their victory over us gives them head-to-head. We could beat Hamilton and then be in a three-way tie with Hamilton and St. Lawrence, but St. Lawrence also beat Hamilton, so they would still take the head-to-head tie-breaker. Any other teams that could join this theoretical logjam at 9 points (Skidmore with a win and a loss, Union with two draws) have already beaten us, so that would only push us further down the table on head-to-head tiebreakers.

So, with RPI, Hobart and St. Lawrence out of reach and Clarkson eliminated, our goal this weekend is to beat out Union, Hamilton, and Skidmore. These are the remaining fixtures for these three teams:

Union (at St. Lawrence, at Clarkson)
Hamilton (at Vassar, at RPI)
Skidmore (at Clarkson, at St. Lawrence)

We can help ourselves by beating Hamilton, which would insure we win a two-way tiebreaker if we beat Hobart even if Hamilton then beats RPI. As far as I can figure it out, these are our scenarios to grab a playoff spot (all of these assume that we defeat Hamilton and Hobart):

- Skidmore loses or draws against both St. Lawrence and Clarkson, and Union grabs only one draw from both games.
- If Hamilton beats RPI and Skidmore gets one win this weekend, but Union gets no more than one draw, there will be a three-way tie for fourth place at 9 points between Hamilton, Skidmore and Vassar, with all three teams at 1-1 in head-to-head. Then I assume the final spot would come down to goal differential, which is still very tight at the moment.

That’s it, as far as I can figure it. I cannot guarantee these scenarios are completely correct, as I came up with them all myself. Obviously, this is asking a lot, including results from Clarkson and a winless weekend from a very strong RPI team. Perhaps the biggest ask here however is for us to get two wins against some very strong teams from Hobart and Hamilton. This has to be our only focus as we take on Hamilton on Saturday. But if we can manage to upset Hamilton, we’ll know that we head into Sunday still alive if Union doesn’t beat St. Lawrence, which is all we can ask for at this point.